Michael Patrick Brady

My article explaining the forthcoming switch from analog to digital TV, and what it means for viewers, ran today at Forbes.com

The deadline for the switch if midnight on February 17th, 2009. Though it’s perhaps the most significant change in television broadcasting since the advent of color, the majority of TV viewers will be unaffected. Most Americans get their TV via cable or satellite services, not over-the-air.

I do wonder, however: will the introduction of free HD signals, broadcast digitally over-the-air, present an actual challenge to pay-TV services?

Of course, free, over-the-air broadcasts will never match the selection available on cable or satellite. No ESPN, no HBO, no E!. But after the 17th, most people should be able to get high-definition signals for the major networks (NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, and PBS) in addition to improved standard-definition digital signals for other local stations, using only an antenna (provided you have an ATSC tuner or digital converter box).

Considering the state of the economy, perhaps pay-TV services will once again be considered a luxury, and not a necessity as they have come to be seen. That monthly cable bill could be the first casualty of any recession belt-tightening. Yes, you’re giving up a wide variety of channels, but isn’t the glut of useless, unwatched channels one of the chief complaints for cable subscribers? Paying all that money for a small grouping of preferred channels and having to wade through the dreck to find them?

If the digital rollout goes smoothly and people see that there’s value in over-the-air broadcasts, that could put a dent in Comcast, Verizon, DirecTV, and Time Warner. Maybe it would spur the introduction of cheaper, more reasonable cable contracts like the proposed “a la carte” plans that I think the majority of consumers would welcome with open arms.